2020 US presidential election forecast

Election polls are used to forecast election outcomes and interpret the meaning of the results. Campaign strategists, candidates, parties, and interest groups rely heavily on them. Academics and journalists use them to understand voting behavior. However, polls lost its glamour in election politics and academic scholarship. Recently statistical models and predictions seems to be a viable alternatives in forecasting the election. It is true especially early in the campaign. Surveys, polls, opinions are increasingly replaced by statistical experimental design or different measure of behaviors and attitudes.

People have tried to predict the outcomes, as long as there have been elections. Political insiders, knowledgeable observers were the most common user of election forecasts before polling system was used.

In the beginning of 20th century the Literary Digest used to survey election poll by sending it to their customers. They have done a good job for nearly two decades, from 1916 to 1932. But their failed prediction of 1936 election brought an end to their survey. Gallup polls in 1936 was the first scientific election polling. But, unscientific straw polls date backs to early 19th century. Founded by George Gallup in 1935, Gallup poll came to limelight after they successfully predicted that Franklin D. Roosevelt would defeat Alfred Landon for the 1936…